Bailey McLean/CFL.ca
As rookie camps opened and CFL teams began taking shape, the Toronto Argonauts were not a team on the outside looking in. We all know their quality as a roster and coaching staff after a brilliant 2023 campaign.
The team was just peppered with some questions through a busy off-season.
From coaches to star corners, beastly running backs, All-Star National receivers and beyond, the rest of the league came calling in February for free agency and rightfully so, given the 16-win season the Double Blue had put together.
Through all that and a change at quarterback, the Argos have started the season 2-0 with an opening week win against BC and a tight victory over Edmonton.
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All of this leads perfectly to Friday Night Football at BMO Field for a game I’m ecstatic to be calling for the CFL on TSN alongside Duane Forde. As part of my weekly prep on games I’m assigned, I dive into the numbers in hopes of understanding the matchup to a higher level.
As play-by-play, my only real responsibility is to match on-field actions with my words and leave the rest up to my significantly smarter and more nuanced analysts. Leaning into this prep allows me to open conversational windows and pitch my partners in the booth one right over the plate they can hit into the upper deck.
Prepping for Montreal versus Toronto left me with one big question and another primary thought heading into 7:00 p.m. ET kickoff: is the Argos 2-0 start fool’s gold? Could they be about to experience the prototypical early season CFL ‘wake up call’?
In no way do these questions and opinions detract from the Argos’ 2-0 start, but any CFL lifer knows just when you think you know everything about the league and matchup dynamics the CFL game evolves and throws you a curveball.
While the coaching staff has done a wonderful job of crafting a game plan around new full-time starter Cameron Dukes at quarterback, he really hasn’t been asked to do all that much as of yet. Meanwhile, the Alouettes strengths in a jaw dropping 3-0 start to 2024 seem to align very closely with the Argos’ apparent weaknesses, through — admittedly — just two weeks.
The Argos lead the CFL in points per game (37.0) despite having a near league low 346.0 yards of net offence per matchup. Toronto’s 153 rush yards per game is sure to come back to Earth at some point and winning first down (which Montreal is the CFL’s best at with only 5.57 yards per first down play allowed) feels like the real game within the game tonight.
Dukes and the Argos have done a great job of converting on second-and-seven yards or more through two games (8-20, 40 per cent, third in the CFL) but the Alouettes’ game plan defensively is to stack first down wins, force long second-downs and get you off the field. Montreal only allows 22.5 per cent of second-and-seven-plus conversions by opposing offences (first) and 40 per cent of opponent possessions are two and outs (second to Saskatchewan).
Perhaps the biggest red flag heading into tonight’s game is the deep ball. Montreal has been proficient with a CFL high eight pass completions of 30-yards or more while dramatically lowering their sack percentage from Cody Fajardo’s first season with the team.
The Argos have the highest average depth of target against (13.6 yards per attempt) which is unsurprising following games against Vernon Adams Jr. and McLeod Bethel-Thompson, both being unafraid to push the ball downfield. But Fajardo’s deep ball excellence this season coming to Toronto to square up with a defence allowing a 55 per cent completion rate on passes 20-yards or more downfield and the second-highest passer efficiency rate on deep shots (172.9) could spell a continuation of the Alouettes’ early season statement that last November was no fluke.
The Argos have yet to play on the road, played a fourth quarter when trailing or play an East division team. Is this a 2-0 mirage or just a team ready to be tested who will answer the call defiantly? We all find out together tonight.
One thing is for sure after the first month of CFL games: this contest will either be viewed as the Argos planting their flag firmly back in the CFL East title conversation OR the narrative that Montreal has Toronto’s number at BMO Field will begin to grow, following the Als’ stunning 2023 Eastern Final win.
Get your tickets, come to BMO and see the drama unfold in front of your eyes in a tremendous Friday Night Football matchup to kickoff the Canada Day long weekend!
